University of Dallas News

Issue date: 11/13/07 Section: Sports

Barber makes his case in a game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Second-round pick Julius Jones continues to see his share of carries for the Cowboys. Should he retain such a large portion of the load?

With the Cowboys out to the sort of start not seen since the times when it seemed like a reasonable idea to put Michael Jackson on stage with 3,500 children for a Super Bowl halftime show, fans have precious little to quibble about. Agreeing with coaching decisions, however, will never be as fun with disagreeing with them, so the masses have locked in on the timeshare arrangement between Marion Barber III (henceforth referred to here as Marion the Barbarian, or just the Barbarian) and Julius Jones. Shouldn't Barber be getting more if not all of the opportunities? As a group of intellectuals, UD students know better than to examine this question in its subjective context only. In statistical analysis, an answer can be found.

The argument against sharing carries so evenly that it keeps the ball out of the hands of the team's better player. At this point, I doubt Jones's mother would argue that he is the better player (5.4 yards per carry for the Barbarian vs. 3.9 ypc for Jones).

Supporters of the system hold that splitting the burden between two players best offsets the physically taxing nature of the position.

A group called Football Outsiders, who began as a response to Michael Lewis' "Moneyball," may have something to say on the subject. The group, led by a man named Aaron Schatz, disseminate their theories through their website, footballoutsiders.com, and an annual book, "ProFootball Prospectus." Through these outlets, they have put forth many forward-thinking ideas, one of which hints at the answer to this debate: the "Curse of 370" posits that "a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson."

The evidence for such a statement lies in an examination of history. They compiled a list of every running back who rushed 370 or more times in one season, looked at their effectiveness (as measured by yards per carry) in the 370 year, then compared it to their effectiveness in the following year. They also kept a special eye to injuries suffered in years following the 370 year. Nearly to a man, running backs perform significantly worse in the next year (0.75 yards per carry, nearly a yard less every rush). Only two of the 30 backs studied improved the year after. Some examples: Jamal Lewis rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2003, carrying 387 times. The following year, his ypc average dropped by a full yard, and he struggled to break 1,000 yards. Shaun Alexander rushed for 1,880 yards on exactly 370 carries in his MVP season two years ago. Last year, his average dropped a full yard and a half and he rushed for less than 900 yards, missing six games due to a fracture in his foot. This year, his average has dropped even further to an embarrassing 3.3 ypc, good for 4th lowest among the 47 running backs with 50 or more carries.

Out of this study naturally rises a theory of running back usage that can be applied to the Cowboys' situation. It looks something like the idea of pitch counts in baseball: a "starter" should be saved from overuse by splitting some of the work with a "reliever." So, in order to ensure an effective long-term career for the Barbarian, Jones ought to shoulder some of the load. The question is one of how much he can handle. Have the carries been split in such a way as to get the most use out of the Barbarian without wearing him out?

The simple answer is no. Now, 370 was chosen as the threshold for the study, but one can logically assume that 365 or 350 carries could have the potential for similar harm. A nice goal, then, for a feature back could be 21 carries a game. Over a 16 game season, that amounts to 336 carries, well below the 370 mark while still allowing heavy use of the feature back.

Jones and Barber currently combine to run the ball about 24 times a game. Anyone watching the games can tell the Barbarian is not clubbing his way through the defense for 21 of those. He's actually averaging 12.5 rushes per game. Clearly, those questioning Wade Phillips's underuse of his barbaric back are quite on to something. At this point, Phillips's management of the situation borders on criminal.

Matters are not, however, so simple. A caveat: further studies of the issue have found that the extra carries garnered by running backs on playoff teams in postseason games have an effect. If a running back stays beneath 370 in the regular season but amasses more than 390 carries in the regular season and playoffs, the effect is the same. Were a player to play 16 regular season and 3 postseason games, as most Super Bowl players do, 21 touches a game would put them at 399 carries. So there is a case to be made for keeping backs on playoff teams under the 21-carry suggestion.

With the Cowboys looking some January (and possibly February) games, it makes sense to keep Barber under 21 carries. To keep him 8.5 carries below it should be illegal. The numbers bear it out: the Barbarian should be pillaging opponents far more often than he currently is.

Page 1 of 1

Article Tools